Al cierre de precampaña, AMLO amplía ventaja

by / 121 Comments / 7 View / 14/02/2018

Durante la etapa de precampaña rumbo a los comicios del próximo 1 de julio para presidente de la República, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, abanderado de la coalición Morena-PT-PES, fue el contendiente que más creció y se mantuvo a la cabeza de las preferencias electorales (27.1%); aventaja con 4.8 puntos a Ricardo Anaya (con 22.3%), de la alianza PAN-PRD-MC, quien sigue en segundo lugar y, José Antonio Meade (18%), en representación del PRI-PVEM-Panal, continúa en tercer lugar, a 9.1 puntos de distancia del primero.

La encuesta especial para El Economista de Consulta Mitofsky, denominada “México 2018: Preferencias al final de las precampañas”, revela que, en conjunto, los tres aspirantes presidenciales por la vía independiente (Margarita Zavala, Jaime Rodríguez el Bronco y Armando Ríos Piter el Jaguar) suman 8% de las preferencias, 2 puntos menos que en enero pasado; la ley electoral no les permite promocionarse hasta que inicie la campaña.

De los entrevistados, 24.6% no declaró preferencia electoral, cifra que, asegura Roy Campos de Consulta Mitofsky, no impacta el resultado de la encuesta porque está dentro del rango; “siempre estar en una ‘no respuesta’ entre 20 y 30 (%), es lo normal”, explicó.

La medición por escolaridad apunta que López Obrador tiene mayor preferencia entre los ciudadanos con mayor nivel educativo: 36.9% entre quienes estudiaron hasta la universidad o más; en ese segmento, Anaya alcanza 19.1%, y 10.3% Meade.

En el nivel primaria o menos, el tabasqueño obtiene 24.3%; de cerca Meade con 24.1%, y el panista con 22.4 por ciento.

Se mueve percepción de quién ganará

El ejercicio reflejó que de 59.7% de los encuestados que están seguros de por quién votarán el primer domingo de julio, entre los simpatizantes de Andrés Manuel López Obrador esa seguridad es de 74.7%; entre los seguidores de José Antonio Meade llega a 69.3%; y entre los que simpatizan con Ricardo Anaya es de 66.4 por ciento.

Tras 60 días de precampaña, la expectativa de triunfo de López Obrador es de 31.4%; a la pregunta “¿Quién cree usted que ganará la Presidencia?’’, Meade terminó en segundo lugar, con 23.4%, y Anaya con 20.7%, en tercer sitio. En enero del 2018, la encuesta reflejaba que 25.6% percibía que ganaba Anaya; 25% que sería López Obrador; mientras que 23.7% se inclinaba porque sería el priista.

En esta nueva medición, la gente que no declaró quién cree que ganaría ascendió a 20.6 por ciento.

 

Redacción: El Economista

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